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My probability estimations on Metaculus

Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? 65 %

Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? 80 %

Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022? 15 %

What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period? 3.6

Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025? 5 %

Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? 10 %

Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? 50 %

Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030? 4 %

Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? 35 %

By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days? 5 %


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